I was asked this in an online forum, and my answer got too long to manage. Here’s my infallible prediction. How did I do?
- Orthodoxy: Little visible change, zero substantive change. Increasing numbers and cultural impact. Progress toward a single American Archdiocese, but still not there yet.
- Catholicism: Neither women priests nor married priests will happen. Increasing disaffection among liberal American Catholics leading to a significant decrease in attendance. Identification as Catholic will be increasingly cultural rather than creedal. This trend, combined with decreasing numbers of men seeking the priesthood, will force additional parish churches to close. This will be slightly offset by conversions from Protestantism, resulting in American Catholic liturgy and pastoral care becoming effectively more traditional. In northern Europe, Catholicism may fade into a cultural memory, but in North America, a leaner, more boldly traditional Catholicism will recover its equilibrium and continue to be a voice of conscience and stability.
- Reformed Christians: Continuing personality issues, but overall the hardcore Reformed will still look and act a lot like they do today, because (almost uniquely among Protestants) Reformed folks know and value their tradition. The edgy/emergey segment will contribute a few cultural differences.
- Lutherans, Episcopalians, Presbyterians, UCC: Increasing convergence so that they resemble each other almost interchangeably, while de-emphasizing troublesome doctrinal issues until their emphasis on social issues rather than personal salvation turns them into Christian-branded social service agencies. In each movement the conservative outliers will continue to peel off in schisms embodying a previous generation’s norm. Many of these etremely conservative daughter groups will identify strongly with the little-o orthodox “Great Tradition” (cf. Tom Oden)
- Anglicanism outside the US and UK: Few significant or visible changes, except increasing numbers, especially in Africa and Latin America, where Anglicanism is conservative in liturgy and ethos.
- Conservative Anglicans, Lutherans, Methodists in North America: I foresee growth and prosperity for individual parishes and dioceses, but overall a continuing fragmentation. Fifty years ago, these groups were culturally relevant and could provide nostalgia for returning Christians; now, in increasingly-unchurched America, they’re culturally unfamiliar but not yet old enough to make a virtue of ancient weirdness the way Eastern Orthodox do.
- Non-charismatic nondenominations will find their kids growing up effectively charismatic nondenoms, with more affinity for styles of contemporary music than for their parents’ doctrinal self-definition. The trend of people choosing congregations based on music and childcare will continue to grow. In-depth teaching of historical doctrine will continue to be a novelty.
- Baptist will continue to be a useless word for describing a set of beliefs or practices, as practically every form of Christian belief and worship can be found among self-described Baptists.
- Charismatic nondenominations: Same story. In the absence of doctrinal accountability, these will continue to generate new approaches and practices every decade or two.
- Old-school Pentecostals (e.g. Foursquare, Assemblies of God, Church of God in Christ, Church of God of Prophecy) in suburbs and wealthy areas will continue to develop in unpredictable ways, ensuring that every generation is nostalgic for a lost experience and baffled by what their churches have become. In the 90s and 00s, the Toronto Blessing, Brownsville Revival, Kansas City Prophets, and new prosperity teachings revisited mid-20th-century phenomena such as the Latter Rain, Manifest Sons of God, and the earlier health-and-prosperity movement springing from EW Kenyon. But the more recent iteration was characterized by a new cultural ignorance of Christian belief or history, which freed it to become crazier, faster. By contrast, change in urban, inner-city contexts and in rural areas will be minimal: Urban churches will continue to be matriarchal and rural churches patriarchal.
TL;DR: in 50 years you’ll see recognizable Orthodox, Catholics and Reformed… and a vast spectrum of Everybody Else, many of them changing in significant ways and seeing that as a virtue.
I’m not sure I’d agree with all of your statements, at least in the areas I know well – The Reformed / Mainline Presbyterian split isn’t nearly so clean as it’s been made out here — the Reformed aren’t as stable as they’re presented, and the Mainline not quite so wobbly (although there are strains of truth to each.)
The liberal wings of the (loosely) reformed tradition still have large swaths with great attachment to tradition, and the conservatives also have their tendency to form cliques and splinter groups, and also to occasionally rediscover common cause with some who had previously been deemed too far to their left.
The UCC increasingly identify little with the reformed tradition, but much of the PC(USA)still would classify itself as Reformed (Although Calvin is read through people like Barth & Torrence, and less through TULIP-Scholasticism).
Basically, both wings will be changing – and still interacting, in perhaps unpredictable ways, as they have throughout their history.
This timeline provides an interesting, though convoluted, picture of the dialectic between different wings of the Reformed (including the mainline):
http://www.stjameschicago.org/confirmation/images/connection2_900.jpg
Interesting thoughts, thanks! I had no idea there were that many streams of Reformed/Prebyterianism.
I also didn’t know the UCC was considered Reformed; my only encounters with them left me with the impression they’re sort of like nonliturgical Episcopalians, somewhere to the right of Unitarians but to the left of most Protestants. Might be just a local thing hereabouts.
The United Church is a combination of German Reformed, German Reformed-Lutheran Union, Congregationalist (Puritan), and Restorationist Christians. They have historically Reformed roots (some of them), but you’re spot on with your present description.
I wrote this on Rod Dreher’s blog:
Well, I’m in the Presbyterian Church in America (PCA) – a conservative, and perhaps more importantly seriously confessional branch of the Reformed world. We’re relatively small – just a half a million, and broke off from the mainline PC USA 40 years ago.
But I think your Orthodox friend is placing us in the broadly Reformed world, not the Presbyterian, which is ok, I guess. We are grounded in traditional Christianity – theologically and in practice.
At present, we are experiencing slight growth, with energy coming from campus ministry and urban ministry – especially in the Midwest and northeast – and away from our traditional Southern origins. We are planting a good many new parish churches.
We’re also having a rare problem of creating more ministerial candidates than there are jobs in churches, in our seminaries. We also are churning out a good many of foreign missionaries, particularly in Latin America and Europe.
We can be dragged a bit by our Protestant Scholasticism and there are temptations in the emergent world, but really not many.
I suspect we’ll continue a slow growth for the next generation or so.
In 50 years, Africa will be the essential center of the Christian church. Europe and the US will continue to become detached, but the current remnants of the mainline may see renewal. Today’s fundamentalist evangelicals will soften and become tomorrow’s Reformed and United Methodists when it intensity addiction in worship begins to wear off on a large scale.
You are right Orthodox does not change its doctrine or worship. Orthodoxy continues to grow. New missions are established every year. Many of our Churches are filled with converts. For example, the majority of clergy in the Antiochian Archdiocese were not born in the Orthodox Church.
There is actually progress towards Orthodox Unity in the United States. The Assembly of Canonical Orthodox Bishops in North America is bringing together all Orthodox Bishops to discuss unity.The Assembly also has a very ambitious program of committees to bring about uniform practice because different Orthodox jurisdictions differ on non doctrinal practices.
Also please remember that according to the Orthodox understanding of unity, all Orthodox are already united because we share a common Faith and are in communion with each other.
Father, bless!
My experience matches what you’re seeing – here in the inland Northwest, the new parishes being planted tend to be in suburban and rural areas, far from any immigrant influx and made up of English-speaking American converts. The ones that have been around a while (we’re in our fifteenth year) are starting to see their kids marrying and raising their on kids in the Church. I’m not expecting a very visible boom in Orthodoxy, but I do expect numbers to keep rising and local influence to grow at least a little. Certainly school boards and funeral homes all over this part of the country are seeing changes because of Orthodox growth.
I’m not so confident that the Assembly of Bishops will accomplish anything noticeable in my lifetime. They’ve agreed to come to agreement that they really ought at some point to agree on what to discuss :-) But that process is not high on my list of things to worry about. As a layman, I never noticed jurisdictional issues; I just communed wherever I wanted. Everybody mixes freely at monasteries and at one another’s parish feasts. The sacramental unity of the Church is a reality even though two priests next door to one another may report to different bishops. Given Orthodoxy’s geological timeframes, I’m not holding my breath for that canonical knot to be untied soon.
I think your predictions do more to describe the “present” than the future 50 years from now. Change in our society is occurring exponentially: every decade of change is (roughly) twice that of the previous decade (think not just religion, but technology, healthcare, political platforms and cultural changes, etc). Ergo, the decline in Christian Church participation/identification over the past decade has been twice as fast the last 10 years as it was the previous 20. So, I think it is impossible to extrapolate current trends with future realities – especially that far out. (If double acceleration/decade holds true, then 50 years would = 10x 2 to the 5th power = 320 years! While a ca1960 computer may have better resembled a ca1640 abacus than today’s PCs, other trends may be significantly faster or slower. Let’s limit our change in religion to a mere century…)
At any rate, nothing about today’s religious realities bears any resemblance to what it did in 1912. There was no global marketplace of ideas. for instance. Communities themselves were often segregated by creed. There was virtually no atheism, and secularism itself had barely any influence in education, media, politics, or any of its other spheres of influence.
So let’s fast forward to 2062 with a “century’s worth” of change: I foresee secularism and atheism becoming dominant in society well before this time, while various Christian groups become persecuted (This has happened every time an officially atheist regime has come to power). Those who remain Christian will be far more fervent than most self-identified Christians of today, and will live their lives accordingly. There will be many fewer Christian denominations than there are today. Reformed groups will merge with each other, Evangelical groups will become perhaps a single confederation, and believe it or not, the Catholics, Orthodox, and conservative Anglicans will somehow come back together. “Liberal” Christianity will effectively have ceased to exist, although it may simultaneously have become the “official” religion (Think Cathedrals to secular humanism).
For Christianity, “rival” denominations will (finally) realize that the real enemy is Godlessness. The already plurality atheists/agnostics within the under 30 set will have had 2 generations to perpetuate their disbelief. When faced with financial and congregational collapse (probably in light of economic crises – losing tax-exempt status, charitable deductability etc, but also disillisionment with the zeitgeist gospel of prosperity), a return to the true Gospel will become necessary. And hope will return.
That, or human beings will have destroyed themsleves completely by then….
American Catholic vocations are on the rise.
It is interesting to note that those churches like the Episcopal, Evangelical Lutheran, Presbyterian USA, United Church of Christ which have changed the most to conform to the values of political correctness and secular society are also those churches that have suffered the greatest decline. It is somewhat ironic these churches have never been persecuted, but changed their beliefs. The Orthodox Church has suffered brutal persecution, but has never compromised its beliefs.
Interesting analysis. My own feeling is that the broad swatch of Evangelical/Pentecostal Christianity has started to decline. Evangelicals are losing ground among young people, and are viewed as self-righteous and judgemental by them. They will have to re-think their approach in radical ways, or they will be viewed as theological cranks with no influence. Atheism/Agnosticism/Secularism is increasing rapidly among the under 35 crowd, but I doubt it will ever be a majority. Catholicism as you say is becoming a smaller, tighter knit, conservative church. Catholicism is using the same approach they used as a reponse to the Protestant Reformation in the 16th Century. It probably won’t work to promote growth, but at least they will know who they are. There is a growth in more progressive Catholic offshoots, however. Mainline Christianity will be more of a ’boutique’ approach to faith appealing to better educated Christians who are non-doctrinal and theologically progressive—-a good choice for skeptics who view the questions raised by faith to be more important than the answers. Can’t aggree with your views of Eastern Orthodoxy—they still seem pretty ethnocentric to have much mainstream appeal and are also very slow changing. Still, you can’t beat their take on liturgy–totally awe inspiring. In 50 years there will be new approaches to faith we aren’t even aware of today. I doubt those with no religion will come even close to being a majority. I guess the bottom line is that I believe God is somehow engraved on our DNA. The only thing is that God will be present, but I am not sure about the format.
Of course, Baptist denominatiions, as Lutheran, run the gamut from liberal to conservative. The ElCA Lutherans belong where you lumped UCC, Episcopalians, etc. Yet the Missouri Synod, Wisconsin Synod, and Free Lutherans maintain loyalty to Scripture, e.g. no women pastors. Those ELCA churches that have split off over the acceptance of homosexual marriages by the ELCA, still maintain other liberal view, e.g. women pastors.
At the end of the last century, Christianity Today interviewed several denominational leaders regarding there outlooks for the future. Regarding ‘fears,’ a leader from the largest pentecostal denomination voice his fear of “heresy” which fits with your note about ” ignorance of Christian belief or history.”
I suspect this country will go the way of Western Europe and the overall percentage of church goers of any flavor will continue to decline as it has the previous 50 years. Culturally, everything continues to fragment and settle into niches, and that’s probably what will continue to happen with most denominations and the mainstream faiths. They’ll need to make sure they continue to emphasize the dogmas and practices that make them distinct, but I imagine each particular faith group will become a kind of island subculture existing within and interacting with the broader culture in varying and diminishing ways. I think what will make the next 50 years so difficult for Christianity in the U.S. is that Christians, to loosely paraphrase William Stringfellow, have become strangers and “aliens” in our own land. When I grew up, more people went to church and even those that didn’t knew something about Jonah and the Whale, or Adam and Eve, or the 10 commandments, and could probably even quote a bible verse or two if you asked them. Nowadays, most people under 50 years of age are as ignorant of the broader themes espoused by Christianity as I am of the latest Hip Hop artists.
Anyway, interesting topic. All guesses are off, of course, if NASA announces a mountain-sized asteroid heading our way.
By the way, I’ve enjoyed visiting your blog from time to time, Silouan, since Sandy and I moved away. I hope you are well.
Best regards,
Mike
What I see missing in all of this is the persecution aspect of it. How will that affec the church 50 years from now. We are already seeing signs of it in the Chick-fil-a controversy and other businesses that voice a traditional marriage belief, and the health care mandate that forces businesses and churches to violate there consciences and pay for abortions.Hobby Lobby says they will close before they do that. I think we may see some real persecution when the tolerance lobby gets a little more power.